中国持续增长的棉花消耗量可能会抬高棉花价格
China's growing cotton consumption may drive up cotton prices
转载自 网络 2007-9-25
中国纺织工业协会的一项报导显示：中国纺织工业今年将消耗1300万多吨的棉花，这将使国内棉花供应紧缺的状况更加严重。
China's cotton textile industry will consume more than 13 million tons of cotton this year, making the nation's cotton supply shortage worse, according to a report of the China Cotton Textile Association (CCTA).
据报导估计，截至今年年底，国内棉纱产量将以150万吨的增幅增至2000万吨。
The report estimated that the nation's cotton yarn output would increase by 1.5 million tons to more than 20 million tons by the end of this year.
报导称，去年全国共消耗673万吨国产棉花，生产出1740万吨棉纱。如果国内的棉花产量保持不变，为了满足棉花需求量，中国将不得不
依赖于进口棉花，这必将会抬高国际市场的棉花价格。
Last year the nation produced 17.4 million tons of yarn with 6.73 million tons of cotton produced at home. If the annual cotton output remains the same, China would have to rely on imports to meet the demand of cotton which would drive up international cotton prices, said the report.
由于棉花价格占棉纺织品成本的大约70%左右，因而棉花价格的波动会对棉纺织工业产生显著的影响。
The fluctuations of cotton prices have exerted impact on the textile industry because the cotton price accounts for about 70 percent of cotton textile production cost.
中国纺织工业协会主席徐文英说，到2010年全国将要消耗2400万吨棉花生产出3600万吨的棉纱，而国内的棉花供给量仅为700万吨，所以
供给与需求之间将有1700万吨的缺口。
Xu Wenying, head of the CCTA, said the nation would consume 24 million tons of cotton to produce 36 million tons of yarn by 2010 while domestic cotton output would be merely 7 million tons, so there would be a 17-million-ton gap between supply and demand.
徐说：“这是不可能的，因为其他国家不会把世界棉花总出口总量的80%供给给中国。”并补充说，这还可能导致国内外棉花价格的激增
"This is incredible because other countries cannot supply China with 80 percent of the world's total cotton output," Xu said, adding that this might lead to cotton price hikes both at home and abroad.
据国家发展和改革委员会统计，六月份中国市场上棉花价格较五月份的平均价格上涨了3%，比国际市场上9.3%的激增低很多。
In June, the cotton price on the Chinese market rose 3 percent over May on average, much lower than a 9.3 percent hike on the international market, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.
中国棉纺网的原始资料显示：六月份标准棉的平均价格是13355元每吨，较五月份增长了384元即3.0%，但是比去年同期下降了713元即
5.1%。
Sources with China Cotton Network showed that the average selling price of standard-level cotton was 13,355 yuan per ton in June, rising 384 yuan or 3.0 percent over May, but falling 713 yuan or 5.1 percent as compared with the same period of last year.
徐文英说：“为了避免可能出现的生产力过剩，国内棉纺织企业需要改变他们的产品结构。”
"Domestic cotton textile companies need to change their product structure to avoid possible overcapacity," said Xu.
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